How to More Accurately Estimate the Time Needed for Tasks
Use consistent past times to develop an estimate., Use varying past times to develop an estimate., Use the experiences of others to estimate the time needed., Draw on both types of estimations., Offer an optimistic estimate., Offer a pessimistic...
Step-by-Step Guide
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Step 1: Use consistent past times to develop an estimate.
If you’re completing a task that you’ve done before, you can draw on your own experience to develop a ballpark estimate of the time needed.
If the task takes the same amount of time for each attempt, you will probably be able to accomplish the task in the same amount of time you did every previous time.For instance, if you make sandwiches for lunch and it always takes eight minutes, you can estimate with a high degree of accuracy that your current sandwich will also take eight minutes to make. -
Step 2: Use varying past times to develop an estimate.
If the task you’re interested in developing an estimate for took a slightly different amount of time every time you did it, you can average the previous times it took you to complete the task in order to arrive at an estimate.
Perhaps the tools you had on hand were different each time, or perhaps the first time you did the task, you didn’t know quite what you were doing.
Whatever the cause, you can total the time spent on the task and divide by the number of instances to achieve an estimate.For instance, if you’re changing tires and have changed your tires three times before with completion times of 30 minutes, 20 minutes, and 10 minutes, your total time is 60 minutes.
Divided by three instances, you end up with an estimated time of 20 minutes to change your tires. , In addition to drawing on your own experience to estimate how long it will take to complete a task, you can use the experience of others to arrive at a reasonable estimate.
For instance, if you plan on swapping out your phone’s battery for a new one, you could ask friends who have the same phone how long it took them.
You can average these time estimates or identify the median time to arrive at a reasonable estimate.After identifying the task you wish to acquire an estimated time to completion for, ask a knowledgeable person how long they believe it will take to complete.
If you do not know someone capable of providing such an estimate, consult web-based sources for an idea of how long it might take.
Depending on the task you’re interested in completing, you might be able to find a reasonable estimate in books at your local library.
Home repair tasks, arts and crafts projects, and recipes, for instance often list estimated times to completion based on the experience of the individual who authored the task directions. , If possible, use both your own past experiences and the experiences of others to arrive at the most accurate estimate of time needed for tasks.
This will allow you to draw on the largest possible set of background data and thus estimate most accurately the time necessary for a given task.Weighing both secondhand and personal experiences will allow you to avoid (or, at least, minimize the odds of) overestimating your own ability to accomplish a task quickly or within a given amount of time. , An optimistic estimate is the minimum amount of time you expect a task will take.
It’s based on the shortest time you previously accomplished a given task in.
For instance, if you are trying to develop an estimate for the time you’ll need to clean your living room and the previous times required to clean your living room were 30 minutes, 24 minutes, and 31 minutes, your optimistic minimum estimate would be about 24 minutes, since it is the lowest number in the data set.Avoid citing the minimum as an estimate, since it is based on only a single data point and will not be very accurate. , The most pessimistic estimate is based on the maximum amount of time you’ve ever spent on a single instance of a task.
For instance, if you’ve cooked pancakes in 10 minutes, 20 minutes, and 15 minutes, you would choose 20 minutes as your pessimistic estimate, since it’s the longest time you’ve ever spent cooking pancakes.
Like the minimum, it’s based on a single data point and therefore not very reliable.Citing the maximum as your estimate will give a very conservative estimate. , The median is the middle number in a data set.
For instance, if baking a cake takes 20 minutes one time, 22 minutes another time, and 23 minutes another time, the number in the set that is in the middle of the other numbers in the data set (22, in this case) is the median. -
Step 3: Use the experiences of others to estimate the time needed.
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Step 4: Draw on both types of estimations.
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Step 5: Offer an optimistic estimate.
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Step 6: Offer a pessimistic estimate.
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Step 7: Offer the median as your estimate.
Detailed Guide
If you’re completing a task that you’ve done before, you can draw on your own experience to develop a ballpark estimate of the time needed.
If the task takes the same amount of time for each attempt, you will probably be able to accomplish the task in the same amount of time you did every previous time.For instance, if you make sandwiches for lunch and it always takes eight minutes, you can estimate with a high degree of accuracy that your current sandwich will also take eight minutes to make.
If the task you’re interested in developing an estimate for took a slightly different amount of time every time you did it, you can average the previous times it took you to complete the task in order to arrive at an estimate.
Perhaps the tools you had on hand were different each time, or perhaps the first time you did the task, you didn’t know quite what you were doing.
Whatever the cause, you can total the time spent on the task and divide by the number of instances to achieve an estimate.For instance, if you’re changing tires and have changed your tires three times before with completion times of 30 minutes, 20 minutes, and 10 minutes, your total time is 60 minutes.
Divided by three instances, you end up with an estimated time of 20 minutes to change your tires. , In addition to drawing on your own experience to estimate how long it will take to complete a task, you can use the experience of others to arrive at a reasonable estimate.
For instance, if you plan on swapping out your phone’s battery for a new one, you could ask friends who have the same phone how long it took them.
You can average these time estimates or identify the median time to arrive at a reasonable estimate.After identifying the task you wish to acquire an estimated time to completion for, ask a knowledgeable person how long they believe it will take to complete.
If you do not know someone capable of providing such an estimate, consult web-based sources for an idea of how long it might take.
Depending on the task you’re interested in completing, you might be able to find a reasonable estimate in books at your local library.
Home repair tasks, arts and crafts projects, and recipes, for instance often list estimated times to completion based on the experience of the individual who authored the task directions. , If possible, use both your own past experiences and the experiences of others to arrive at the most accurate estimate of time needed for tasks.
This will allow you to draw on the largest possible set of background data and thus estimate most accurately the time necessary for a given task.Weighing both secondhand and personal experiences will allow you to avoid (or, at least, minimize the odds of) overestimating your own ability to accomplish a task quickly or within a given amount of time. , An optimistic estimate is the minimum amount of time you expect a task will take.
It’s based on the shortest time you previously accomplished a given task in.
For instance, if you are trying to develop an estimate for the time you’ll need to clean your living room and the previous times required to clean your living room were 30 minutes, 24 minutes, and 31 minutes, your optimistic minimum estimate would be about 24 minutes, since it is the lowest number in the data set.Avoid citing the minimum as an estimate, since it is based on only a single data point and will not be very accurate. , The most pessimistic estimate is based on the maximum amount of time you’ve ever spent on a single instance of a task.
For instance, if you’ve cooked pancakes in 10 minutes, 20 minutes, and 15 minutes, you would choose 20 minutes as your pessimistic estimate, since it’s the longest time you’ve ever spent cooking pancakes.
Like the minimum, it’s based on a single data point and therefore not very reliable.Citing the maximum as your estimate will give a very conservative estimate. , The median is the middle number in a data set.
For instance, if baking a cake takes 20 minutes one time, 22 minutes another time, and 23 minutes another time, the number in the set that is in the middle of the other numbers in the data set (22, in this case) is the median.
About the Author
Carolyn Jimenez
Creates helpful guides on crafts to inspire and educate readers.
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