How to Conduct a Local Election Exit Poll
Identify a race or special election you would like to research., Look at who can vote in the election and where the voters vote., Make a simple sample frame., Add the total number of potential voters up: 1000+1200+900+900= 4000 , For each district...
Step-by-Step Guide
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Step 1: Identify a race or special election you would like to research.
A good start might be special elections or proposition elections with simple choice items. -
Step 2: Look at who can vote in the election and where the voters vote.
For example, if you want to look at a town mayor's race, look at where the polling sites are for this race.
Gather this data from your local election office.
Develop a point of contact at this office to make sure the right sorts of permission is granted. , The math for this is very simple and easy to do.
For example, let's say there are four voting districts in the mayor's race.
District A: 1000 voters District B: 1200 voters District C: 900 voters District D: 900 voters ,,, Let's say
500.
Multiply the percentage by the number:
District A: 25% x 500 = 125 voters District B: 30% x 500 = 150 voters District C: 22% x 500 = 112 voters District D: 22% x 500 = 112 voters , This is a simple basic control for gender.
District A: = 125 voters 63 male and 63 females District B: = 150 voters 75 males and 75 females District C: = 112 voters 56 males and 56 females District D: = 112 voters 56 males and 56 females This is the sample for this race.
In some small local elections, the number might be lower.
In most cases, it is a good idea to sample at least 100 voters per 1000 until the 500 person sample is reached.
Prepare ballots for the race with separate color ballots for male and female voters to keep the sample controlled.
The ballots can be very small, just large enough to reflect choice.
Create a data gathering team.
In most cases, exit polls can be handled by a minimum of one person per site, but two is better.
Assign a leader per site and create a reporting method using text messaging or email or cell phones. , (a) only talk to voters as they leave the polls. (b) place the ballots in a container. (c) Count the ballots in a discreet location, such as inside a car etc.... , Note, it is best to embargo results with media until the polls close. ,, Note:
No method is perfect, this is a learning exercise. -
Step 3: Make a simple sample frame.
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Step 4: Add the total number of potential voters up: 1000+1200+900+900= 4000
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Step 5: For each district
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Step 6: create a percentage: District A: 1000 voters/4000 = 25% District B: 1200 voters/4000 = 30% District C: 900 voters/4000 = 22% District D: 900 voters/4000 = 22%
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Step 7: Decide how many voters to sample.
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Step 8: Divide the sample by two and ask equal numbers of men and women voters.
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Step 9: Set down the rules with the data gathering team.
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Step 10: Prepare a media plan to distribute the results.
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Step 11: On election day
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Step 12: assign the teams to collect the data.
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Step 13: Tabulate the data and make an estimate of the results.
Detailed Guide
A good start might be special elections or proposition elections with simple choice items.
For example, if you want to look at a town mayor's race, look at where the polling sites are for this race.
Gather this data from your local election office.
Develop a point of contact at this office to make sure the right sorts of permission is granted. , The math for this is very simple and easy to do.
For example, let's say there are four voting districts in the mayor's race.
District A: 1000 voters District B: 1200 voters District C: 900 voters District D: 900 voters ,,, Let's say
500.
Multiply the percentage by the number:
District A: 25% x 500 = 125 voters District B: 30% x 500 = 150 voters District C: 22% x 500 = 112 voters District D: 22% x 500 = 112 voters , This is a simple basic control for gender.
District A: = 125 voters 63 male and 63 females District B: = 150 voters 75 males and 75 females District C: = 112 voters 56 males and 56 females District D: = 112 voters 56 males and 56 females This is the sample for this race.
In some small local elections, the number might be lower.
In most cases, it is a good idea to sample at least 100 voters per 1000 until the 500 person sample is reached.
Prepare ballots for the race with separate color ballots for male and female voters to keep the sample controlled.
The ballots can be very small, just large enough to reflect choice.
Create a data gathering team.
In most cases, exit polls can be handled by a minimum of one person per site, but two is better.
Assign a leader per site and create a reporting method using text messaging or email or cell phones. , (a) only talk to voters as they leave the polls. (b) place the ballots in a container. (c) Count the ballots in a discreet location, such as inside a car etc.... , Note, it is best to embargo results with media until the polls close. ,, Note:
No method is perfect, this is a learning exercise.
About the Author
Cheryl Reynolds
Experienced content creator specializing in lifestyle guides and tutorials.
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